Episode 185 - Spreadsheet Math VS Real Life Math

Transcript

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Ryan Burklo: Hello, everybody! Welcome back to beer and money. I am Ryan Burklo and I am Alex Collins, and on today's episode we're going to be discussing

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Ryan Burklo: spreadsheet math

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Ryan Burklo: versus real-life math.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: This is going to be an interesting topic for us. we we we both firmly agree on the same principles. We also take

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: slightly different tax towards it.

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Ryan Burklo: Yeah, it's, you know. This stems from

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Ryan Burklo: It stems from

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Ryan Burklo: When people are doing any kind of like financial plan for themselves.

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Ryan Burklo: They're looking it from a standpoint of Well, if I get X percent of rate of return on my money, and i'm saving this amount of money. Look at how much money I'm going to have right.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and they're using static rates of return. They're using assumptions that we know are going to change or not. Be accurate, like there's so many different things inside of these things that, like

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like one of the things that we talk about when we go through like spreadsheet type. Stuff is like, hey? The only thing we truly know is that these numbers are going to be wrong

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Ryan Burklo: is vastly different, and this is why I think Americans struggle with any kind of financial plan, because they might sit down quickly and do this kind of spreadsheet math and think. Oh, i'm on pace.

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Ryan Burklo: and then they don't look at it for a decade

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: right or 2

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Ryan Burklo: right so.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: or they make false assumptions in like are setting themselves up for failure because they're looking at it from a spreadsheet standpoint.

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Ryan Burklo: So before we got dive deeper into this, Alex, what are we drinking today?

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: so today we are taking deviation from our normal hazy Ipa, and we are drinking a pecan pie

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: border.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: this is from backwoods brewing up in Stevenson, Washington.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: So you've got an interesting look on your face, Ryan. What tell me? Tell me about it. What do you think it is? Way too sweet.

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Ryan Burklo: right like I actually enjoy porters, especially during this time of year.

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Ryan Burklo: I guess maybe you can drink this after like a hefty meal, and maybe it's like kind of like your dessert beer. Possibly. But you

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Ryan Burklo: it it's way too sweet from my taste.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: I like this. This is shocker.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: This this is nice. It's delicious. It's like i'm thinking like when I think of porters I think of like a meal in a can, and this this feels lighter to me

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like i'm not actually getting as much suite as you are

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like this doesn't have a ton of I use in it.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: but it like it actually finishes a little bit bitter to me. It's not overly sweet to me.

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Ryan Burklo: It's not heavy. You're right about that. But i'm for whatever reason getting a big.

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Ryan Burklo: sweet kick, and I just

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Ryan Burklo: I I've taken. I don't know that I can drink much more of this is what i'm getting at, so I I get the sweet kick kind of right in the middle of like.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: It's like it starts off kind of real light, and then gets real sweet, and then finishes kind of

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: almost a little happy to me. even though it just has 20 ivs. I I I like this a decent amount.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: What's your what's your bottleneck operating? Well, for a quarter? I'm going to give this a 9 overall. I give it a a 7 and a half 8 like this, is it? This is a very solid beer. I'm going to go with the one

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Ryan Burklo: across the board. This this is not something that that I enjoy so

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Ryan Burklo: check them out right like, but it

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Ryan Burklo: out, and I have very different tastes and beers right so out it's like sour. So if you like hours, maybe this is up your alley.

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Ryan Burklo: So backwards, Brewery, and they're based out of Stevens Washington is that we? Said Stevenson. Stevenson, Washington. I don't even know where that's that.

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Ryan Burklo: So check them out. This is why I think we both love Washington. There's so many different breweries. It's so much fun testing this stuff out. So

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Ryan Burklo: let's let's get into the topic here, Alex.

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Ryan Burklo: So we already kind of dove deep into really do, explaining, like the big difference between spreadsheet map and and real life math. And I think let's go through an example

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Ryan Burklo: to kind of give the numbers behind reality here.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: Yeah. So Stevenson, before I forget, is it's right down on the Oregon Washington border on the Columbia River. a little bit east of of Portland. Vancouver.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: alright, so what we're what we're giving the example. Here is somebody who saves a a $1,000 a month. 12,000 for the year. they do this for 30 years. We're giving them an assumed rate of return. truly hypothetical, there's there's nothing magical about this but a 7% hypothetical rate of return.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: And at the end of that 30 years they'll have just a little bit over

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: 1.2 million dollars.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: which sounds awesome. $1,000 a month, turns into 1.2.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: Sign me up right.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: however.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: that that's not real life.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: so walk us through like kind of what you're thinking of, Brian, when you when you think of

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like real life.

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Ryan Burklo: Yeah. So and we're doing overly simplistic for those of analytics out there, You're probably going to hear some like issues with the numbers we're going to bring up. And yes, we are. We are aware of it. We're just giving an overly simplistic example. Here Alex is laughing at me because when we were discussing this example.

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Ryan Burklo: Alex went off like over analytic mode, and I had to call him out on it.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: I just threw a couple of different. What if Sir Ryan and he goes? God damn it, Alex. I'm not looking at the specifics here. I'm trying to give an example.

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Ryan Burklo: So to the point, right like on that spreadsheet. If you're saving 12 grand a year and you get the 7% like static rate of return. You're going to end up with somewhere over 1 point, 2 million dollars.

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Ryan Burklo: But in real life.

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Ryan Burklo: like, imagine your own a home.

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Ryan Burklo: So your these 30 year time horizons. Well, what could happen in a 30 year time horizon where you may not be able to save.

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Ryan Burklo: or you might need to take money from your accounts

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Ryan Burklo: to fund

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Ryan Burklo: some issue.

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Ryan Burklo: and I thought of 3 issues that always come up in. Most people's lives

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Ryan Burklo: unless you're nomad

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Ryan Burklo: is 3 years from now, for instance, maybe you need to buy a car, and we get the question all the time. Of what should I just pay in cash, Ryan, or should I take out the loan? So I went with the stereotype that often people think they should do, and whether or not they should or shouldn't. That's not the point of this conversation.

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Ryan Burklo: This person just got $30,000 and bought a car near 3.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: I you know my answer to that question right?

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Ryan Burklo: overly analytical, and we'll spend the next 20 min on it, or

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: what it depends.

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Ryan Burklo: Okay.

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Ryan Burklo: then, in year, 10, right? We still looking at this 30 year, time, horizon and year 10, remember their home homeowner.

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Ryan Burklo: I know when I had my my house, and I still have my house, but in your 10

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Ryan Burklo: I had to purchase a new water here, the water heater blue.

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Ryan Burklo: that happened to me 3 months into owning the house right. So I did $5,000 for water heater.

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Ryan Burklo: Could it be more or less for you? Analytics Absolutely right. I just imagine someone listening to this. I can't believe they spent $5,000, or someone else is like I spent something like. Look

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Ryan Burklo: it! It's an example. $5,000 with a water heater.

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Ryan Burklo: and then 15 years. Into this

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Ryan Burklo: you had to put a new roof on the house, and I put $30,000 for that. Now many of you are going to say. Well, I just spent 40 or 50,000 on my roof. Look, this is just an example. This is $65,000 over a 30 year period of time that you spent in different increments.

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Ryan Burklo: and if you did that you would have just under

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Ryan Burklo: 9, actually just over $900,000,

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Ryan Burklo: 3 specific for your analytics, $904,144

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: it. We're never going to get specific on that, Ryan, for a host of reasons. One the only thing we truly know is none of those numbers are accurate

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: in the 30 years. It's probably going to cost a lot more, or in 15 years. It's probably going to cost a lot more for a roof.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: We don't know when that's going to happen. We don't know, like there are so many different factors

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like we haven't built in inflation.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: We haven't built in a variable rate of return.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: We haven't built in taxes.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: We're assuming that somebody buys one car in a 30 year time period

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like, how long have you had your card? Brief? Just so. You're aware the reason, I said, this is, and hopefully, my father in law Doesn't, listen to this podcast.

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Ryan Burklo: When

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Ryan Burklo: my father in law bought a car. It must be 3 years ago now.

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Ryan Burklo: and at the time, and maybe it was 4 years ago now, but at the time he was he would have been probably 65 or 66,

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Ryan Burklo: and his comment to me was, this is the last car i'll ever own.

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Ryan Burklo: and in reality maybe that's the case. But I I kind of threw back at him and say, okay, so you're like because he normally he holds on to his cars to be fair, but he holds on those cars for maybe 10, and I think the longest he held on. The one was maybe 12 or 13 years.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: so I threw it back out of my go. Are you predicting your your death like.

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Ryan Burklo: What do you mean? Like

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Ryan Burklo: the chances are you're buying another car.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: I and this is someone right, and in retirees say this all the time. Oh, my dad said this when he bought his last car of like I'm not never going to buy another car again, like

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: I really hope you're wrong, because, like you're you buy a car about once every 5 to 10 years, and

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: well, that's not going to be fun if you're not here in 5 to 10 years.

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Ryan Burklo: So

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Ryan Burklo: the whole purpose of us bringing up spreadsheet math versus real math, like, I think many of you listen to this like, okay, Ryan Alex. I get it.

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Ryan Burklo: The question that we want you to ask yourself is this.

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Ryan Burklo: How often are you? Are you looking at these numbers like. How often are you really looking at where your money is going? Specifically.

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Ryan Burklo: your financial plan is not a set it and forget it. Plan. And I think too many people.

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Ryan Burklo: They set up a plan, and they don't look at it for a decade or 2 decades, or maybe never again.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: And like

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: it, it'd be like

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: getting on a plane.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and the pilot setting a course

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and never correcting for weather

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: like. If you're going from New York to La.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: It is entirely possible that you're going to end up in San Francisco. If you don't course correct

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and that's the whole point of this is

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: even the Uber analytics. You are never going to predict life. It is literally unpredictable.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: There are way, too many variables.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and even the variables that we kind of sort of know

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: there's so much fluctuation in 100. We are going to get it wrong.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and if we don't like.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: okay, tell me what numbers, and when to go by the lotto ticket.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: or which stocks to purchase that are going to crush it next year.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: All of this information is just unknowable.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and as a result, Like, we have to be able to to plan appropriately, be able to modify it on the fly, and have our plan set up in a way

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: to be flexible and adjustable and create balance.

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Ryan Burklo: And i'd have one more thing. This is a key and a key example as to why working with someone that is a professional in the financial arena that understands how to look at everything from a holistic viewpoint

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Ryan Burklo: we'll be able to save like. Even in this example, I just threw down

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Ryan Burklo: right that this same client, Alex, who's working with us

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Ryan Burklo: right in this example, there are so many different avenues that we could take this person down to save them, will be more efficient with their money, and ideally have more net worth because of those types of conversations. This is where the financial professionals

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Ryan Burklo: give their best value. It's not really the rate of return.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: This beer is delicious.

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Ryan Burklo: Just stop

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Ryan Burklo: so

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Ryan Burklo: at a bare minimum. You should be reviewing your plan annually and ideally talking with someone that Isn't is an expert in finances and not specifically in investments. But i'm talking about financial planning

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: right. The the ability to go ahead and see the big picture understand how things fit together, and like one of the other things that needs to be brought up and discussed is

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: the vast majority of the time.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: What we come across is either one

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: of the couple are at the financial home.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: or none of the couple are at the financial home.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: And so, if you have one person at the helm.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: how often are you sharing where you're at? One of the things we've talked about is it's incredibly, critically important to talk with your spouse periodically about money, so that you don't wind up in the situation where, if you're the spouse that's at the helm.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: you either succeeded.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and you get a pat on the back, and like, hey, good job

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: you did what you're supposed to do very, no, very little to no credit.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: or

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: you get blown up and chastised, and like. How could you let this happen

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: as a result? And the antidote. The antidote to that is to make sure that you're reviewing

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: the plan on a regular basis and sharing that with your spouse and bringing them into the conversation of like, hey, here's where we're at. We need to do better at savings, or

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: we need to.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: you know. Maybe take a little bit of risk here or back off on our risk, like I want you involved in some of these decisions, so that it's not just

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: one person shouldering the weight of the financial world

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Ryan Burklo: 100%

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Ryan Burklo: which I think takes us, Mr. Collins, to the question of the day.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: My question today is, how often are you reviewing

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and revising your plan

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Ryan Burklo: So head over to beer and money.net, and at the top of the page is a spot that says, contact us click on that, and there's a spot for you to answer that question, or

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Ryan Burklo: there's a spot for you to reach out to us. If any of this brought up like, hey? You know what I probably should talk to someone about my overall plan and what it is, and to be more efficient with my money. It's about for you to reach out to us there as well.

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Ryan Burklo: should it make sense to?

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: Or if you're the analytic that wants more questions answered.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: and i'll get it and respond back to you. But we it might also be something that we touch on in a future podcast, so that they? Those are some of our favorite podcasts that we wind up having done is when folks reach out to us and say, hey, Ryan, what about this? Or hey, Alex, what about this?

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: We we love it When you guys give us questions? and it's shocking. How many times we have had clients like

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: call us or email us after a podcast comes out, and

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: their question is, hey, were you talking to me about this topic?

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: The the answer is like 99% of the time. No, but it's really cool that a lot of our clients actually feel like we're talking specifically to them. and so if there is something that you have a topic on, or a question about

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: paying us, and then we actually will be talking specifically to you.

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Ryan Burklo: Yeah, if If you got any value of this episode, pay forward share with your friends, or share with your family, share with your your coworkers.

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Ryan Burklo: If you don't like someone. Then maybe don't share it with them.

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Ryan Burklo: That's a joke, by the way.

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Ryan Burklo: So look, we hope this episode is viable. The whole purpose of this podcast is to make sure that you're being as efficient as you can with your money for the purpose of living the life that you want to live

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Ryan Burklo: as always. Mr. Collins.

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Alex Collins, ChFC, CFP: Yours.

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Ryan & Alex are Registered Representatives and Financial Advisors of Park Avenue Securities LLC (PAS). OSJ: 200 Market Street Ste. 1850, Portland OR 97201 Ph 503-221-1226. Securities products and advisory services offered through PAS, member FINRA, SIPC. Financial Representatives of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America® (Guardian), New York, NY. PAS is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guardian. Quantified Financial Partners is not an affiliate or subsidiary of PAS or Guardian. Ryan Burklo, AR Insurance License # 15319412, CA Insurance License # 0K24924, Alexander Collins AR Insurance License # 7264699, CA Insurance License # 0H24806. #2023-149877 Exp 01/2025

Episode 185 - Spreadsheet Math VS Real Life Math

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